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Insider: The bin Laden Factor

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Campaigns & Elections
Campaign Insider
News and Information for People in Politics

May 4, 2011

Bin Laden Killing Likely to Recast 1st GOP Debate
Until Sunday night, it was a safe bet that the first Republican presidential debate, to be held in South Carolina tomorrow, would focus heavily on the economy. But the killing of Osama bin Laden has thrust foreign policy, and specifically the war on terror, back into the 2012 contest.
>> New York Times
 

Former Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez
Carlos Alvarez
THE RECALL OPTION
More Mayors Facing "Recall Fever"
Tom Cochran, executive director of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, calls it "recall fever." Fifty-seven mayors faced recall attempts last year, up from twenty-three in 2009. This year, recall attempts already have targeted fifteen mayors, including Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez, who was ousted in an overwhelming vote.
>> Governing
Wisconsin Recalls an Opportunity for Some
The unprecedented recall movement that may put nine or more Wisconsin state Senate seats in play this summer also constitutes a unique job opportunity for members of the Assembly. At least five state representatives have announced or are considering running in the recall elections.
>> Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Another State Backs a Popular Vote for President
Vermont's Democratic governor, Peter Shumlin, signed legislation making his state the latest member of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a movement aiming to make sure that the candidate who wins the popular vote nationwide becomes president.
>> Campaigns & Elections' Campaign Insider Blog

MONEY
Governors Associations Raked in the Cash
Unlike political committees or candidates for federal office, the Democratic and Republican governors associations both may receive unlimited donations, including money directly from corporations and unions. And raise cash they did.
>> OpenSecrets.org
Much Corporate Political Spending Stays Hidden
Despite calls for transparency, only a few of the country's seventy-five leading energy, healthcare, and financial-services corporations fully disclose political spending.
>> Los Angeles Times
Democrat Sues over Spending Disclosure Rules
U.S. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, argued in a lawsuit that campaign spending disclosure rules do not adequately implement portions of the McCain-Feingold law.
>> Washington Post
FEC Publishes Federal/State Disclosure Directory
The Federal Election Commission has published the 2011 version of its guidebook of organizations and individuals responsible for disclosing information on money in politics.
>> Federal Election Commission

GOP Sharpens Its Online Tools
Republicans are better prepared to compete online in 2012 than they were in the last presidential campaign. The GOP caught up with Democrats in using technology and social networks in last year's midterm elections, and now many Republicans are using these tools more than Democrats.
>> New York Times

TelePrompTer screen
PEOPLE
The Speechmaker's Friend
Political history lost one of its minor but critical players with the death of Hubert "Hub" Schlafly. Few will recognize the name, but his contribution to political communications is enduring: He invented the TelePrompTer.
>> U.S. News & World Report
Former NRCC Director to Head GOP Group
Former National Republican Congressional Committee Political Director Brian O. Walsh will be president of the American Action Network, heading up the outside group that spent $26 million in the last election cycle.
>> Rothenberg Political Report
Obama Taps Ambassador as Finance Chairman
Matthew Barzun is leaving his post as U.S. ambassador to Sweden to become national finance chairman for President Obama's re-election campaign, taking the role Chicago billionaire Penny Pritzker held in Obama's 2008 campaign.
>> Roll Call
The Quiet Power of Ovide Lamontagne
Ovide Lamontagne may have narrowly lost a 2010 U.S. Senate primary in New Hampshire, but he has found a new niche: de facto kingmaker of GOP presidential hopefuls.
>> Campaigns & Elections' Campaign Insider Blog

DEMOGRAPHICS
Report: Surging Minorities Sitting Out Elections
A record 14.7 million Latino voters sat out the 2010 midterm elections, according to a report by the Pew Hispanic Center showing that the nation's fastest-growing minorities--Asian voters appear similarly disengaged--are largely failing to exercise their right to vote.
>> Los Angeles Times
Obama Trying to Rebuild Ties with Hispanics
President Obama met last week at the White House with a group of Latino celebrities, the latest in a series of moves to rebuild his ties to a fast-growing segment of the electorate.
>> Wall Street Journal

Original content copyright 2011 Campaigns & Elections

 

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IN THE MAGAZINE
Making It Big
on the Small Screen

In this month's cover story, Shira Toeplitz helps consultants navigate the path to TV-pundit stardom. Plus: The Campaigns & Elections staff remembers Richard Wirthlin, Steve Pearson and Ford O'Connell provide insight into how to follow voters' online trails, and Whit Ayres talks about polling and politics.

EVENTS
The Art of Political Campaigning
Join us June 16-18 for three blockbuster days of practical panels, workshops, and presentations that cover the full gamut of campaigning--from fundraising to media production, opposition research to grassroots organizing, campaign software to attack strategies and responses, candidate speeches and appearances to campaign management and legal compliance.
>> More information

QUOTABLE
President Obama and Jon Huntsman
Obama and Huntsman:
opponents in 2012?
"What happened to decency? To reason? What happened to common goals? To calm? To respect?"
Questions posted on the website of Horizon PAC, which is expected to be the foundation of Jon Huntsman Jr.'s exploration of a Republican run for president. If the former Utah governor wins the nomination, he would challenge the man who named him ambassador to China, President Obama.
>> Daily Beast

"Hug a Republican, make them feel good."
California's Democratic governor, Jerry Brown, encouraging acts of affection toward GOP lawmakers who are opposed to his plan to put tax extensions on a ballot to help close the state's budget deficit
>> Sacramento Bee

DATAPOINTS
29
Number of states in which one party controls four or five of the top offices--governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and state treasurer--as a result of the 2010 elections, up from twenty-six states before last year's voting
>> Governing

Denver logo
Nearly $3.7 million
Amount Denver's six mayoral candidates, including one who had dropped out, had raised for their campaigns as of last Thursday, putting the race on track to top the city's record-breaking 2003 mayoral election
>> Denver Post

 

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Ex-CIA Official Warns of Terror Reprisal, Jihad Hijack of ‘Arab Spring’

Newsmax.com


Breaking from Newsmax.com

Terror Expert Scheuer: 'Al-Qaida Will Counterpunch' Against U.S.

Al-Qaida is much stronger than it was on 9/11 despite the death of Osama bin Laden and it's a virtual certainty that the growing terrorist group will launch a major revenge attack, according to author and former CIA bin Laden expert Michael Scheuer.

In an exclusive Newsmax.TV interview, Scheuer predicted that bin Laden will have "an enduring resonance among Muslims for hundreds of years," because he hurt the United States and survived for a decade afterward.


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"It's a bigger organization geographically, it's a bigger organization in numbers, and on a whole there are more mujahedeen in the field against us today than there were on 9/11," Scheuer told Newsmax. "So this is a problem that America hasn't come to grips with yet."

A revenge attack from al-Qaida against American or Western targets is "certain." He adds: "They will counterpunch. I'm not sure it's going to be in the near term though. If they have something they can do that's on the shelf, they'll do it. Otherwise, they'll plan and execute an operation that is of significant size."

Don't be fooled by the rosily optimistic scenarios of democratic revolution spreading across the Arab landscape, Scheuer advises. Already, Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups are moving to exploit the turmoil in Egypt. Al-Qaida, too, will seek to move in and fill the power vacuum in places like Libya and Syria.

"Islam is on the rise across the Middle East at the moment, despite BBC and CNN singing the praises of so-called democrats in Egypt," Scheuer said.

From 1996 to 1999, Scheuer led the CIA unit hunting bin Laden, and he also helped the CIA search for the al-Qaida chief following the 9/11 attacks. His book "Osama bin Laden" was published in February. According to Scheuer, bin Laden always envisioned that the Islamic struggle with the West would take decades.

"He had long argued that this was a generational war, that he wouldn't be around to see the end of it," Scheuer said. "And certainly over the past four or five years he has dispersed his organization in order to survive just what happened on Sunday, the killing of the head of the snake."

He said there is little doubt al-Qaida has gained strength. On 9/11, al-Qaida was primarily based in Afghanistan, with just a few other peripheral locations.

"Now it is still in parts of Afghanistan, it's well established in Pakistan, it's in Yemen, it's in Iraq, it's in the Levant in Gaza, it's in Somalia, and it's in northern Africa," he said.

Although Scheuer predicts bin Laden's stature in the Muslim world will endure, he added, "It's much preferable to have a dead martyr than to have a live, smart guy. And he was a very smart, very modern manager in many ways. So the United States certainly is better off with him dead."

Bin Laden's death clearly is a blow to al-Qaida, he said. "But to think that his influence is now going to recede in the near term, or even in the distant term, is a mistake," he added.

Scheuer predicts that Obama's lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, will rise to become the temporary head of al-Qaida. But he warns regional al-Qaida commanders in Yemen and Afghanistan actually may pose the greater threat to the United States.

Other highlights from the exclusive Newsmax interview:

• The intelligence gathered during the raid on bin Laden's compound near Islamabad is "perishable information." Terror operatives will soon begin covering their tracks, so the information must be translated and acted upon as soon as possible.

• It is naïve to think the United States has the "whip hand" in its dealings with nuclear-armed Pakistan due to its $1.5 billion in aid. "We're trying to keep together a country that's falling apart because of the help they've given us," he said. "They have a civil war in their own country at the moment, in order to make sure those nuclear weapons remain safe. So it's a relationship where we really don't have the whip hand. We want those nuclear weapons safe. We also want to use Pakistan as a platform for Afghanistan. So in many ways we don't have any choice."

• Publishing still pictures won't quell rumors bin Laden is still alive, he said. "You can do almost anything with Photoshop these days to create a picture that you want," he said. "You would have to have video, or something more than just simply snapshots of a man shot in the head twice."

© Newsmax. All rights reserved.

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U.S. Top News Early Edition: U.S. says Osama bin Laden unarmed when shot dead

Reuters
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05/4/2011
News Good Morning Omss
LATEST NEWS
U.S. says Osama bin Laden unarmed when shot dead
ABBOTTABAD/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden was unarmed when U.S. special forces shot and killed him, the White House said, as it tried to establish whether its ally Pakistan had helped the al Qaeda leader elude a worldwide manhunt. | Full Article
Glencore targets $11 billion as IPO draws big guns
May 04, 2011 07:42 AM ET
HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) - Top commodity trader Glencore sought a strong debut for this month's share offering, capping planned proceeds at $11 billion and placing 31 percent with key investors led by Abu Dhabi. | Full Article
U.S. raid opens Pakistani military to rare domestic
May 04, 2011 08:27 AM ET
KARACHI (Reuters) - The special forces raid that killed Osama bin Laden was a major intelligence coup for the United States but it has opened up its ally the Pakistani military to accusations of incompetence and domestic criticism of the usually respected force. | Full Article
U.S. says bin Laden photo "gruesome," weighs release
May 04, 2011 06:17 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration wrestled on Tuesday with releasing what it called a gruesome image of Osama bin Laden's corpse, even as militants started questioning whether U.S. forces really killed him. | Full Article
Private sector adds 179,000 jobs in April
May 04, 2011 09:03 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 179,000 jobs in April, while payrolls for March were revised up modestly, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. | Full Article
BUSINESS NEWS
Wall Street set for flat open as M&A offsets ADP
May 04, 2011 09:09 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were poised to open little changed on Wednesday as investors weighed a fresh round of proposed acquisitions against a weaker-than-expected employment report. | Full Article
Kellogg profit misses on costs but keeps profit view
May 04, 2011 08:37 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Kellogg Co reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday, hurt by higher costs for ingredients and brand investments. | Full Article
Time Warner tops expectations, ad sales surge
May 04, 2011 08:39 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc posted better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday, with revenue rising 6 percent alongside a surge in advertising sales at its cable TV networks. | Full Article
Applied Materials to buy Varian Semiconductor for $4.9 billion
May 04, 2011 08:18 AM ET
BANGALORE (Reuters) - Chip equipment maker Applied Materials will buy rival Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc for $4.9 billion in cash as it looks to cement its edge in chipmaking technology to meet the rising demand from smartphone and solar equipment makers. | Full Article
Euro zone takes third debt crisis patient into care
May 04, 2011 09:06 AM ET
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Portugal and Greece talked up the benefits of Lisbon's decision to accept a 78-billion-euro bailout from the European Union and IMF on Wednesday, but the outlook for both countries and Ireland remains highly uncertain. | Full Article
HEALTH NEWS
U.S. asthma rates rising but reasons unclear: CDC
Retailer Safeway recalls certain foodstuffs
Eating less salt doesn't cut heart risks: study
Infants getting herbal remedies, despite questions
Environmental lobby urges EU limits on chemicals
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